Hamilton College Professor Carlos Yordán says the U.S. can't afford to leave Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in power. Yordán, who teaches government and international relations, cautions, "The longer we wait, the more time Hussein has to create alliances and prepare his military for war."
Yordán says, "We can't go in alone." He thinks the U.S. needs international allies and when President Bush addresses the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, Sept. 12, Bush should appeal to the countries that have supported the U.S. in the war on terror although Yordán doubts the U.S. will get Russia's support.
"The U.S. isn't the only country with billions at stake," Yordán says. "Iraq has unpaid military contracts with Russia that date back to the '70s and '80s, and these are currently worth around $12 billion. Russia has no assurance that a new Iraqi government will honor those financial transactions."
Iraq is currently buying around $1.5 billion Russian goods per year through the UN's oil-for-food program, so an attack would have short-term consequences for the Russian economy. "More importantly," Yordán says, "Hussein's regime has been working with Russia on a trade agreement that could earn the Russian economy around $40 billion dollars. The only way Russia will support the U.S. is if there are assurances that Russia will be compensated for any probable financial loss."
The recent decreases in Iraq's oil exports have been in the works for quite some time. Iraq's oil industry's infrastructure, though better than in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf War, is still in tatters. Most of the money earned from the UN's oil-for-food program is used for humanitarian purposes, but some of it is also used to buy equipment to modernize, not only Iraq's oil industry, but its utilities and other industries. The problem is that some of this equipment has the potential to be used for military as well as civilian purposes. Yordán says, "The UN has had to closely review many of these contracts in order to make sure that they are not being directed to support Iraq's military or weapons program." He continues, "The oil industry's lack of parts and the increasing 'wear and tear' on existing parts has forced Iraq to decrease its production of oil. This goes against Iraq's plan of getting its industry to pump 3.1 million barrels per day by the end of this year."
President Bush is expected to ask for a vote of military action before Congress adjourns for the fall political campaigns. Yordan says the timing in unfortunate. "I don't think Bush can get enough Democrats on-board to make it fly. The Bush Administration just doesn't have the political capital."
