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President George W. Bush's State of the Union address provided him an excellent opportunity to make his case for war against Iraq. He didn't take it. "Bush failed in his public relations battle to rally citizens around an imminent war on Iraq," says Hamilton College government professor Carlos Yordán.  "Why is Bush waiting? Do friendly sources of intelligence require protection?  What could account for this public relations failure on the part of the Bush administration, other than a need to spare sources for future intelligence needs?"

Bush's address reiterated much of his U.N. general assembly speech of September 2002.  Yordán says, "The rhetoric was stronger night but, without sharing any new details, Bush leaves the task of 'selling' the war to Powell on February 5."

Given seasonal concerns -- U.S. troops must attack in February and March to avoid the searing heat and sand storms -- Bush cannot delay in proving his case.  Yordán says, "The longer Bush waits, the more time Iraq has to play a diplomatic game that may prevent the creation of a wide coalition of support and even weaken the support offered by Turkey.  Hussein has proven himself a creative global strategist and could easily work to create instability and rob the U.S. of its staging ground in Turkey."

Yordán has published and presented many studies in the field of international relations. Most of his research has been devoted to the study of peacemaking efforts in the former Yugoslavia, with a special emphasis on the Dayton Peace process and the Clinton administration's decision to intervene in Bosnia and Kosovo. He is currently researching how presidential administrations' "operational codes" or "belief systems" affect the making of U.S. foreign policy, especially those issues that impinge on US-EU relations.

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