An article titled "The Sixteenth Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party" by Cheng Li, the William R. Kenan Professor of Government, appeared in the July/August Edition of the journal Asian Survey, published by the University of California. The essay was co-authored with Lynn White of Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, and looks at the recent changes in the top levels of the Chinese Communist Party and what these changes will mean for the future of China.
In November 2002, the Sixteenth Central Committee took power in Communist China. The authors describe the situation: "Younger leaders, the 'fourth generation' headed by Hu Jintao, seemed to replace the old guard. Gerontocracy seemed moribund. Yet, this prospect was dimmed when Jiang Zemin bequeathed to Hu the post of party general secretary, but kept the chair of the Central Military Commission."
In a government such as China's, change is often controlled in such a manner and may not signal greater change, but "on the other hand, in view of past ebbs of authoritarianism in Russia or Eastern Europe, might not evidence of peaceful succession or factional compromise in China's ruling party be important?," asks Li. This is the main question addressed in the article, as the authors look at the precise nature of the changes to the Central Committee and China's ruling elite.
By assembling a database of the biographical traits of all the Central Committee members, Li and White could look at the leaders' birthplaces, educations, career paths, affiliations and political socializations, and could furthermore compare this data with those from older Central Committees. From this information, some conclusions could be made about the differences between this Committee and previous ones. For one, there is now a higher proportion of new faces on the Committee, and a younger average age of members, signaling the entrance of the "fourth generation". There can also be important observations made on gender, regional origin, educational and career paths, and political factions. As the authors point out: "The coexistance of varied political networks suggests a dispersion of influence and balance of power. The increases in the types of regional and professional channels through which new leaders can advance their careers create important kinds of diversification... No individual, no faction, no institution, and no region can now dominate China."
Born in Shanghai, Li grew up during the Cultural Revolution. In 1985, he came to the United States where he later received an M.A. in Asian Studies at U.C.-Berkeley and a Ph.D. in Political Science at Princeton. He spent 2002-03 as a residential fellow of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC and is a member of the Institute of Current World Affairs in Hanover, New Hampshire. Dr. Li is the author of Rediscovering China: Dynamics and Dilemmas of Reform (1997) and China's Leaders: The New Generation (2001). He is currently working on two book manuscripts: Chinese Technocrats and Urban Subcultures in Shanghai.
