The communication and government departments held their traditional post-election discussion panel on Nov. 4 in the Red Pit. Government Professors Philip Klinkner and Verena Blechinger-Talcott and Communication Professor John Adams shared their insights into the results and implications of the 2004 election, and answered questions from the audience. The discussion was moderated by Professor of Government Frank Anechiarico.
Adams discussed the campaign from his point of view as an expert in political rhetoric. There were so many different veins of discourse in this election, he said, that it is difficult to identify "the one" that was most important. In fact, there were so many different messages coming from various sources that it was possible for the voting public to only tune in on what they wanted to deal with, he said. One observation he did make is that "plain-talking" individuals are often considered more authentic and honest, making George W. Bush's more simple style of communication an advantage for him.
Klinkner, an expert in political parties and elections, shared some insights he's
gained from analyzing the early data on the election. This presidential election, he said, was almost an exact replay of the 2000 election - how a state voted in 2000 was 96% predictive of how it voted in 2004. Though President Bush did pick up about 3 percentage points across the board, this consistency discredits the widespread prediction that the cataclysmic events of 9/11 would greatly change
voting patterns. In breaking down the data by demographic groups, there are some interesting changes from the 2000 election, Klinkner said. The gender gap has closed somewhat, with President Bush gaining 5 percentage points among women. Whether or not this is related to the popular concept of the "security mom" demographic, he said, could not be proven. President Bush also picked up 9-10% among Hispanic voters in this election, along with 10% among urban voters. However, Klinkner said, all of the increases in these groups came from voters making over $50,000 dollars a year, whose overall votes for Bush increased 4
percentage points. With all the talk of increased voter turnout in this election, Klinkner said, the greatest turnout was from voters making over $100,000 a year. The Bush campaign's ability to turn out this Republican base helped them win the election, he said. This data shows that while class cleavages among voters have declined over time, they cannot be ignored, Klinkner said.
Blechinger-Talcott spoke about European reaction to the results of the American election. From looking at European media coverage i the last few days, she said, it is clear that the European people are surprised by the results of the election
and feel that they don't fully understand their traditional ally anymore. In a poll conducted in Blechinger-Talcott's home country of Germany, for example, 80% of Germans said they would have chosen Kerry had they been voting in the election. There is a feeling in Europe now, Blechinger-Talcott said, that President Bush can no longer be considered an aberration or a footnote in history, but instead must be considered as an important force in determining the course of the 21st century. Europeans are realizing now that this century may not go the way they expected it to, and that the old systems of alliances from the last century may be coming to an end. The "move towards morals" in American politics and the role of the evangelical Christian right is also a topic of discussion in the European press, Blechinger-Talcott said. There is a general fear that President Bush's second term could pull the world apart, she remarked, but Europeans feel that at least they know who and what they will be dealing with over the next four years.
Anechiarico then recognized students and faculty from the audience to ask questions of the panelists. The discussion included the importance of gay marriage as an issue, how President Bush will govern in his second term, ideological and partisan divides in the American electorate, and how the Democratic party will regroup in the future.
-- by Caroline R. O'Shea '07
