Some Hamilton College faculty members were asked to predict what the top news stories of 2004 -- other than the Presidential election -- will be. Following are responses from faculty representing a variety of disciplines:
Visiting Instructor of Government Richard Skinner said, "The American reconstruction of Iraq, which will have implications for the future of the U.S. military (which is under severe stress now), the future of democracy in the Middle East and the future of NATO.
"Also the continuing rise of China to superpower status, both economically and strategically," said Skinner.
Professor of Biology David Gapp said, "Several health-related issues are building up to be potentially big stories in the biomedical field.
"The outcome of the current mad cow disease situation has not only health but serious economic implications for the American beef industry. If this turns out to be an isolated case and the controls and surveillance for mad cow disease appear to have worked, then the impact will be short-term. If this turns out to be more wide-spread, then there will be some serious consequences. Stay tuned....
Gapp added, "Today the FDA announced a ban of all ephedra-containing products. These are generally found as food supplements employed for weight loss, performance enhancement, etc. The active compound in ephedra (preparation of an an herb, Ephedra sinica) is ephedrine, a powerful stimulant related chemically to amphetamine. Ephedra has a 5000 year history going back to traditional Chinese herbal medicines. However, the widespread use of ephedra in 'supplements' has been linked to serious health problems and deaths (e.g., the Baltimore Orioles pitcher who died in training camp this spring)," Gapp said.
"The food supplement industry is a $19 billion a year business (I think that number is correct) that is independent of FDA regulation, and to this date, they have been immune to anything but mild regulatory controls. Today's ban of ephedra represents a first-time ban in the food supplement industry, and in theory could open up the industry to Congressional examination and more stringent Federal controls," Gapp said.
Professor of Classics Barbara Gold responded, "The war in Iraq will be a continuing quagmire and horror story with no solution; I see another Vietnam-like conflict."
Maurice Isserman, Professor of History, echoes Gold: "The failure of the Bush 'Iraqization' strategy and the resulting cost in American lives, dollars, and international prestige."
Professor of Anthropolgy Doug Raybeck predicts "Problems encountered by Bush's foreign policy will continue to be notable, as will the unravelling of some of his administration's poorly kept secrets ... the connection between Cheney, others and oil company executives, and the leak concerning the CIA agent which will be found to have come from a White House source.
"However," Raybeck added, "the top news story, lamentably, will be another strike by Al Qaeda, this time coming from the sea at one of our major ports, possibly Boston, and quite possibly involving highly combustable LPG (Liquified Peteroleum Gas) containers."
Professor of Religious Studies Heidi Ravven said: "I think the other top new story is going to be the ongoing attrition in Iraq--more Americans dying, more terrorist and other attacks against American soldiers and related personnel in Iraq, and the inability of the American presence to stabilize the country."
