Philip Klinkner, the James S. Sherman Associate Professor of Government, was interviewed for the New York Times article (11/7/2004) "Can History Save the Democrats?" According to the article, "History suggests several possibilities for a major reshaping event -- a national calamity, a deep schism in the ruling party, the implosion of a social movement under the excesses of its own agenda or the emergence of an extraordinary political figure."
Klinkner said, "Not every nation-shaking event alters the political landscape. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 do not seem to qualify as a realigning event. Though Mr. Bush made a point during the campaign of telling voters how much Sept. 11 had changed him, there was little sign that the attacks had a significant effect on voting patterns this year."
"It is really incremental movement," he said of Mr. Bush's re-election. "The correlation between the vote in 2000 and 2004 was about as high as any pair of elections since the late 19th century. Essentially, Bush did 3 percentage points better this time, and he did so everywhere."
Posted November 7, 2004
