Johns Hopkins University professor Les Roberts addressed the Hamilton community in a talk titled, "100,000 Civilian Deaths in Iraq: A Story of Media Spin," on Thursday, Sept. 1. Roberts, an associate professor at Hopkins' Bloomberg School of Public Health, presented the under-published and often misrepresented findings of a study that he conducted along with other researchers from Hopkins and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad.
The results of Roberts's study indicate that Iraqi civilian deaths have risen drastically since the United States invasion of Iraq in March 2003. In the 14 months prior to the invasion, 46 deaths occurred in about 1,000 households surveyed, compared to 142 after the invasion; Iraqis, he said, were 2.5 times more likely to die after the war began. Whereas most deaths before the invasion were attributable to heart attacks, strokes, and other ailments, most deaths after it were the result of violence. Moreover, Roberts reported that the coalition was responsible for 84% of these violent deaths.
Relating these numbers to the general Iraqi population, researchers estimated that, if the city of Falluja is left out of calculations, there is a 50% chance that the death toll is below 100,000, and a 50% chance that it is above 100,000. The inclusion of Falluja, according to Roberts, would certainly put the Iraqi death toll well above 100,000. In contrast, Roberts said, most news sources report and most American people believe that the death toll is less than half of this number.
Roberts noted that this discrepancy is based on the American media's efforts to downplay Iraqi deaths. In Europe, Roberts reported, the findings of this study made the front pages of most major newspapers; in comparison, the study's results appeared on page A8 of the New York Times and on page 12 of the Washington Post. European news sources provided in-depth analysis and substantial details of the study, while U.S. media coverage was only moderate. Moreover, the study's publication in the U.S. provoked an outpouring of spin articles that led the American public to disregard the study as invalid.
In light of the widespread ignorance or refutation of this study in the United States, Roberts highlighted some "serious problems with our press." He indicated one study, in particular, that found that the media reports almost all political deaths in non-wartime, whereas it reports only about 5% of those that occur during war.
Roberts also stressed the need for journalists to provide readers with contextual information that would help them to better understand statistics and numbers. According to Roberts, U.S. soldiers are dying at six times the rate they did in Vietnam, but yet the general public is not aware of these statistics as the American press often neglects to provide readers with contextual information.
The blame, however, is not to lie entirely with the media, as Roberts stressed. He maintained that on certain issues, the Press must trail public sentiment, and that there are some things that "the American public just isn't ready" to hear. Explaining the essence of his argument, Roberts stated, "We as a society have this whim that we can't say anything bad about our troops and therefore can't have an open, honest discussion about Iraq."
Roberts's study was based on a survey of Iraqi households in randomly picked locations, encompassing more than 7,800 people in all, who were asked about differences between their household compositions at the time of the study and before January 2002. Researchers asked about births, deaths, and causes of death, as well as the dates and details of violent deaths. In almost all instances, they were able to verify their information by examining death certificates. The study was published in an online edition of The Lancet on October 29, 2004.
Roberts concluded his lecture with a question and answer session with the audience. The talk was sponsored by the Hamilton College Speaker Fund.
-- by Sarah Lozo '06
The results of Roberts's study indicate that Iraqi civilian deaths have risen drastically since the United States invasion of Iraq in March 2003. In the 14 months prior to the invasion, 46 deaths occurred in about 1,000 households surveyed, compared to 142 after the invasion; Iraqis, he said, were 2.5 times more likely to die after the war began. Whereas most deaths before the invasion were attributable to heart attacks, strokes, and other ailments, most deaths after it were the result of violence. Moreover, Roberts reported that the coalition was responsible for 84% of these violent deaths.
Relating these numbers to the general Iraqi population, researchers estimated that, if the city of Falluja is left out of calculations, there is a 50% chance that the death toll is below 100,000, and a 50% chance that it is above 100,000. The inclusion of Falluja, according to Roberts, would certainly put the Iraqi death toll well above 100,000. In contrast, Roberts said, most news sources report and most American people believe that the death toll is less than half of this number.
Roberts noted that this discrepancy is based on the American media's efforts to downplay Iraqi deaths. In Europe, Roberts reported, the findings of this study made the front pages of most major newspapers; in comparison, the study's results appeared on page A8 of the New York Times and on page 12 of the Washington Post. European news sources provided in-depth analysis and substantial details of the study, while U.S. media coverage was only moderate. Moreover, the study's publication in the U.S. provoked an outpouring of spin articles that led the American public to disregard the study as invalid.
In light of the widespread ignorance or refutation of this study in the United States, Roberts highlighted some "serious problems with our press." He indicated one study, in particular, that found that the media reports almost all political deaths in non-wartime, whereas it reports only about 5% of those that occur during war.
Roberts also stressed the need for journalists to provide readers with contextual information that would help them to better understand statistics and numbers. According to Roberts, U.S. soldiers are dying at six times the rate they did in Vietnam, but yet the general public is not aware of these statistics as the American press often neglects to provide readers with contextual information.
The blame, however, is not to lie entirely with the media, as Roberts stressed. He maintained that on certain issues, the Press must trail public sentiment, and that there are some things that "the American public just isn't ready" to hear. Explaining the essence of his argument, Roberts stated, "We as a society have this whim that we can't say anything bad about our troops and therefore can't have an open, honest discussion about Iraq."
Roberts's study was based on a survey of Iraqi households in randomly picked locations, encompassing more than 7,800 people in all, who were asked about differences between their household compositions at the time of the study and before January 2002. Researchers asked about births, deaths, and causes of death, as well as the dates and details of violent deaths. In almost all instances, they were able to verify their information by examining death certificates. The study was published in an online edition of The Lancet on October 29, 2004.
Roberts concluded his lecture with a question and answer session with the audience. The talk was sponsored by the Hamilton College Speaker Fund.
-- by Sarah Lozo '06
